Securing Iraq (4): Faleh Jabar on the Trajectory of Violence

The website of the Iraqi Federation of Trade Unions has posted an important analysis of violence in Iraq by Faleh Jabar. Jabar is an Iraqi sociologist and author of many books on Iraq, including The Shi'ite Movement in Iraq (2004).

Some recent commentary has suggested that the so called ‘resistance’ is growing stronger, Faleh Jabar argues it is in inevitable decline. He writes: “Prior to the constituent elections, armed attacks decreased, largely due to increasing native security capacity, as well as improving living standards (basic monthly salaries increased from $3 to $90). After elections legitimacy of the political process was established. The failure of insurgents to derail this phase of transition triggered differences in their camp. Several Sunni groups that boycotted elections realise now their strategy of boycotting the ballot was self-defeating. Insurgents further alienated themselves by targeting Shia communities (the massacre of Hilla, Babylon in March this year).

No more were Iraqis willing to accept the term "resistance", let alone mujahid (holy fighter); they are now using the Western term "terrorists" to describe all insurgents. The icy wall inhibiting cooperation with the security forces also melted down. As a result, whole sectoral networks of insurgency have been dismantled, as was the case in the Haifa Street (Baghdad) which is quiet now.
Violence will definitely continue, but the majority of Iraqis believe it has no future. The new multi-ethnic, multi- religious political class wishes to curry favour with voters not bombers. This reflects both faith and readiness to come out against all those who oppose a Western-enforced democratisation by violent means. Palestinian elections, Egyptian reforms and pro-democracy mobilisation in Lebanon have also encouraged Iraqis that they are on the right track”. (AJ)