Ripples of Democracy in the Middle East

Rokhsana Fiaz, in the Asian Times, examines democratization in the Middle East.

Recent months have had the world transfixed with the revolutionary changes afoot in the Middle East. According to the foreign policy pundits, we are bearing witness to a remarkable development in the spread of democratic ideals across the Arab World.

What do these changes signify? Well for a start, we are told that this vindication of the Bush administration’s push against tyranny and extremism, unpalatable though this might be for those opposed to America’s onslaught on terrorism.

We are told that Arabs everywhere have been profoundly affected by the spectacle of Iraqis defying terrorists to cast their votes and elect a new government, symbolising the Arab equivalent of the fall of the Berlin wall. And of Palestinians managing to hold a free election whilst still under Israeli occupation along with the Lebanese thronging the streets of Beirut with their flags in an unprecedented show of people’s power. At the same time Honsi Mubarak, Egypt’s president for the past 24 years, has astonished his countrymen with a call for constitutional changes allowing for rivals to pitch for his position for the first time in a generation.

Whilst these changes certainly signify a new spirit, we should err on the side of caution. The Arab world is large and diverse, and there is always a risk of connecting dots in a way that produces a distorted picture.

Take the example of Lebanon. Broad base popular movements as we have recently witnessed here are unlikely to emerge soon in other countries. Lebanon’s experience is in many ways unique. Famously fractious, the Lebanese are well educated and politically sophisticated. Their central government is weak, meaning that it lacks the instruments of control enjoyed by other states. Here, grassroots appetite for bottom up democracy and the impulse for independence combine into a potent force. But there remains a lot to do. The next critical phase for Lebanon is to deal with internal issues. The Lebanese people must re-legitimise their political system and Lebanon's first parliamentary elections currently being held free of Syrian control in almost 30 years will be a key test. This process will necessitate a restructuring of the constitution and an examination of the parliamentary structure, the role of political parties, and the voting age. All these topics are being actively debated. Even Hezbollah recognises that they will have to change with the times to keep the party legitimate and as it has developed, Hezbollah has become more of a pragmatic political party than a religious institution. Lebanon will also have to assess the new generation of Lebanese youth, which makes up roughly half of the Lebanese population and whose demands, aspirations and expectations are largely unknown.

By contrast, in the remaining Arab states the kings and ‘national liberation’ parties that took power after the colonial period have clung ruthlessly to office ever since. Yet in the past year or so, even governments of that sort have been making concessions to democracy. In some cases this has been done for domestic reasons, in others a response to pressure from the Americans.

Morocco’s politics have matured lately into lively multi-party systems, albeit under the supervision of an almost absolute monarch. In Kuwait, we are currently witnessing the last all-male polls in this emirate, which embraced parliamentary democracy more than four decades ago. Only last month did its Parliament grant full political rights to all citizens and enfranchised Kuwaiti women will make their election debut in 2007. Even Saudi Arabia has enjoyed the thrill of electioneering as polling for town councils recently took place across the kingdom.

Needless to say, much of this top-down reform has been hesitant and shallow. In none of these cases has the real balance of power been threatened with change.

Essential attributes of an open society, such as full scrutiny of state spending, an unfettered press, truly independent courts and accountable police and security forces remain unachieved. The changes often look less like Bush’s forward strategy of freedom than a rearguard strategy of regime survival.

Throughout history, the countries of the Middle East have made invaluable contributions to the arts and sciences. Today, however, too many people are hindered by the lack of political and economic freedom, and modern education they need to prosper in the 21st century. Currently, some 14 million Arab adults lack the jobs they need to put food on their tables and roofs over their heads. Some 50 million more Arab young people will enter the already crowded job market over the next eight years. But economies are not creating enough jobs.

Growth is weak. The GDP of 260 million Arabs is already less than that of 40 million Spaniards and falling even further behind. Add in the production of Iran’s 67 million people, and the total is still only two-thirds of Italy’s.

Internally, many economies are stifled by regulation and cronyism. They lack transparency and are closed to entrepreneurship, investment, and trade. Ten million school-age children are at home, at work, or on the streets instead of in class. Some 65 million of their parents cannot read or write, let alone help them with their lessons. Barely one person out of a hundred has access to a computer. Of those, only half can reach the wider world via the Internet. Even when children do go to school, they often fail to learn the skills they need to succeed in the 21st century. “Education” too often means rote learning rather than the creative, critical thinking essential for success in our globalising world. Education has begun to lose its significant role as a means of achieving social advancement in Arab countries, turning instead into a means of perpetuating social stratification and poverty.

And for women in the Middle East, marginalisation remains the key challenge. More than half of the Arab world’s women are illiterate. They suffer more from unemployment and lack of economic opportunity. Women also make up a smaller proportion of members of parliament in Arab countries than in any other region in the world. Until the countries of the Middle East unleash the abilities and potential of their women, they will not build a future of hope.

What is clear is that the international community’s approach to the region needs to broaden to achieve real democratic success. In particular, it must give sustained and energetic support to economic, political, and educational reform across the region. It must work with peoples and governments to close the gulf between expectation and reality and address the all too apparent ‘hope’ gap. Only then will the ripple of democracy emerging in the Middle East turn into a liberating wave.