Dirty litle secret

Jonathan Todd gives a personal view on nuclear power, what President Roosevelt called the west’s dirty little secret – oil - and democratisation in the Middle East

Tony Blair’s Government last week announced an Energy Review, with speculation that this will result in a new generation of British nuclear power plants attracting much ire, not least within Blair’s own party. This anger is misplaced. Not only should the green lobby leave behind their CND inherited prejudice against nuclear and recognise how nuclear can help tackle climate change but if we are interested in reinventing Robin Cook’s ‘ethical foreign policy’ then we ought to also acknowledge the contribution that nuclear can make to improving British energy security.

Nye Bevan famously said that unilateral nuclear disarmament would send him as Foreign Secretary ‘naked into the UN Conference Chamber’. Without enhanced energy security today’s Foreign Secretary risks having ever more naked dependency on Middle Eastern gas and oil undermine efforts to support democratisation of this region. These efforts will count for little while the west’s ‘dirty little secret’, as President Roosevelt put it, persists – that is to say turning a blind eye to whatever happens inside petro-states so long as gas and oil supply is guaranteed. By reducing energy dependency on the Middle East British nuclear new build can contribute to putting this ‘dirty little secret’ behind us.

Condoleezza Rice has conceded the limitations of this ‘secret’ and wants to chart ‘a different course’ by ‘supporting democratic aspirations’. Yet, these efforts will be compromised so long as US energy imports from the Middle East rise, while domestic reserves are running out and extraction of those that remain, such as in the arctic wildlife reserve, is controversial. UK reserves are equally sparse, with the country becoming a net importer of gas in 2004 and on course to become one of oil by 2010. The importance of these commodities is reflected in price rises since 2003 – oil up by 90 per cent and gas up by 55 per cent. The staggering economic rise of China and India will only increase demand for these notoriously scarce commodities, forcing prices higher and with them the value of the diplomatic bargaining chips in the hands of petro-states.

We might seek to reduce the value of the chips in Middle Eastern hands by finding alternative sources of gas and oil. Russia is willing to use its gas reserves, as cutting supply to Ukraine and the accusation from Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili that Russia was responsible for the sabotage of gas pipelines and electricity-transmission stations serving his country illustrate, as a means of drawing the countries of the former Soviet Union closer into the undemocratic orbit of Moscow. This week gunmen in Nigeria's turbulent Niger delta attacked offices belonging to an Italian multinational in the latest attack on the country's oil industry. Turning to Russia or Nigeria risks creation of further ‘dirty little secrets’, which already exist in the Caucasus. The west pays lip service to a peaceful transition to democracy in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, though, will pay homage to the present tyrannies while the oil flows.

The west cannot turn from the Middle East to another region without similarly complicating democratisation efforts, nor can the UK hope to significantly dent Middle East dependency through renewable energy alone. The British Government only foresees 15.5 per cent of energy coming from renewable sources by 2015/16. In contrast, it is predicted that ten new nuclear power stations would produce in 25 years time about half current UK energy requirements. Environmentalists who oppose nuclear new build would do well to remember that the country with the most nuclear power stations in Europe, France, is also the European country with the lowest emissions. In the absence of nuclear new build the best that renewables can hope to do is make up the short fall in energy output created by the decomissioning of current nuclear plants. Renewables need to be combinded with nuclear new build, as well as investment in new, carbon-free, clean coal plants. These changes to the supply of UK energy ought to be combinded with efforts to reduce demand – previous such efforts were so pitiful that residential emissions remain at 1990 levels.

If the Energy Review arrives at this package of policies the UK may, at least slightly, reduce Middle East dependency. We should not lose sight of the prize this contains. “At a stroke”, argues Professor Victor Bulmer-Thomas, “western countries could end the hypocrisy that currently affects their relations with authoritarian regimes in the region. Pressure would mount for political reforms, and human rights abuses would no longer be ignored. Saudi Arabia, yet alone the smaller countries, would start to look like Brazil – important, but not so important as to merit exceptional treatment”.

Until we arrive at this situation we will struggle to make good the end of support for democratisation, which Paul Berman, author of the hugely influential Terror and Liberalism (2003), powerfully encapsulates by saying, "freedom for others means safety for ourselves. Let us be for freedom for others". Many in Blair's party would do well to join him in championing this objective and accepting the potential contribution of nuclear towards this. Sadly, anti-Americanism may prevent the former and hangovers from CND days the latter.