Measuring Meaningful Progress in Iraq

Dr. Yasser Alaskary of the Iraqi Prospect Organisation examines how things have changed in the last year and how to measure improvements in security.

The White House interim progress report on Iraq, released last week, and the Congressman who are clambering to abandon Iraq before next year’s US Presidential elections next year, failed to recognize a major shift taking place in Iraqi society – something rigid benchmarks and news headlines cannot capture.

The Golden Dome mosque in Samarra, one of the most revered shrines by Shia Muslims, was bombed in February last year and ignited sectarian violence in and around Baghdad that by the end of 2006 had spiralled the country to the brink of civil war. The shrine was bombed once again last month. How the country reacted this time around provides a much deeper and more meaningful indication of which way Iraq is heading.

Last year’s bombing exposed an Iraqi government ill-prepared, a population bitterly divided by sect and creed, and too many political leaders who either supported the ensuing violence or at the very least were silent about it. When the shrine was bombed last year, Ibrahim Jafari's government failed to react and sectarian tit-for-tat violence escalated dramatically month-on-month. This time around, Maliki had learnt the lessons of last year. An immediate curfew was imposed in Baghdad and Basra, extra check points were erected to patrol potential flash-points, additional security was posted around Sunni mosques, and he visited the shrine the same day to see the damage for himself. More importantly, public reaction was palpably different this time. Iraqi Sunni television stations, such as al-Baghdadiya, quickly condemned the attack, which stood in contrast to last year's deafening silence. Even the extremist Sunni group, the Association of Muslim Scholars, condemned the attack in their own special way (they blamed the US and Iraqi government).

The bombing failed to evoke the same response in Iraqis. Sectarian violence has not escalated, quite the opposite in Iraq. The early signs are that there has been a definite shift on the ground in people's attitude - a fact still yet to filter up into the Iraqi parliament, which continues to be stalled. Iraqis saw where sectarian conflict got them last year and they are not keen to go further back down that path again.

The steady successes in the Anbar province, where Sunni tribes have sided with the government against the insurgents and terrorists, underscore the shift in attitudes taking place in Iraq. It is this gradual acceptance of the country’s new democratic system by its various factions which will ultimately bring about stability. The fear is that a partisan Washington, in the run-up to a presidential election next year, will be short-sighted, ignore the developing changes and demand early disengagement from Iraq.

This article was brought to you by the Iraqi Prospect Organisation, an Iraq-based network of young men and women promoting democratic values