The Military Surge and The Oil Law

Adam Wolfe offers a detailed overview of interlinking events which may either bring stability to the region or harden sectarian fractures.

A conspicuous silence on Iraq

David Bosco in the Boston Globe examines the positions of human rights group on the surge and the debate on the withdrawal of troops and urges them to engage.

Iraqi foreign minister on consequences of troops out

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari is interviewed on his trip to Australia. He makes it clear that the consequences of a precipitate withdrawal of foreign troops would be terrible. He says: The country would disintegrate, it would be divided. There would be civil war, slaughter, sectarian war. There would be mayhem. International terrorists would find there would be a safe haven in Iraq, a much more important and sympathetic safe haven than they found in Afghanistan, and they will attack others from there. Iraq's neighbours will be tempted to cross its borders and establish zones of influence there.

Text of article in the Australian
A lesson in loyalty

The silence that greeted the visit of an elected Iraqi minister is an indictment of left-wing media, writes foreign editor Greg Sheridan
24may07

THIS week I had the considerable pleasure of meeting a genuine hero, a military hero and a democratic hero, a moderate Muslim and a hero in the struggle for democratic self-determination.

I refer to Iraq's Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari. A long-time Kurdish freedom fighter, he has been an indefatigable campaigner for Iraqi human rights and democracy.

Note, therefore, this incredible occurrence. Zebari held a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Alexander Downer on Monday. Yet The Age in Melbourne, the nation's most left-wing newspaper and the paper that has most strongly opposed every aspect of the coalition action in Iraq, did not see fit to print a word about it on Tuesday.

This is as glaring a case as you could imagine of simply not reporting the facts because they don't fit your preconceived narrative.

The Age has spent tonnes and tonnes of newsprint excoriating the coalition efforts to liberate Iraq from the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein and give it a chance of establishing democracy. But it certainly did not want to hear the views of an Iraqi who has the legitimacy of 12 million Iraqis voting three times so that he could be Foreign Minister.

This is, sadly, all too representative of the irrational turn the Iraq debate has taken, where nobody is the slightest bit interested in any evidence that does not support their already held position.

The Australian carried my interview with Zebari yesterday and I don't intend to recapitulate it here, except for one central consideration. This is what he said would be the result of a rapid pullout from Iraq by the coalition forces led by the US and including Britain and Australia.

Zebari said a rapid coalition pullout would mean: "The country would disintegrate, it would be divided. There would be civil war, slaughter, sectarian war. There would be mayhem. International terrorists would find there would be a safe haven in Iraq, a much more important and sympathetic safe haven than they found in Afghanistan, and they will attack others from there. Iraq's neighbours will be tempted to cross its borders and establish zones of influence there."

Now here's the thing. If Zebari is right, rapid withdrawal would be an unmitigated strategic disaster. It would be a tremendous victory for the terrorists and nothing would be more likely to cause conflict within the Middle East. Yet that is the logic of Labor's position under Kevin Rudd, with the important qualification that Rudd would withdraw Australian troops after consultation with the US and not necessarily suddenly.

This is an issue that very few people discuss honestly. This is a US-led operation and the key question is when the Americans leave. Either they will leave because their own political will collapses or because the Iraqis can finally take care of security themselves. If it is the former, then the disastrous results that Zebari sketches are a strong possibility. If it is the latter, then the whole Iraq mission has been redeemed and the infamy of a genocidal tyrant justly brought to a close.

But in much of the Western debate, not least in Australia, you get the impression that commentators hate George W. Bush and John Howard more than they love the Iraqi people. Just as the international Left cared not a fig for the human rights of Vietnamese, Cambodians or Laotians, and in general didn't mind a genocide or two once the communists were in power, so too you get the feeling they will rapidly lose interest in any amount of suffering by Iraqis provided the Americans and their allies have been comprehensively humiliated.

The other intriguing aspect of Zebari's visit was his general praise for the Australian troops in Iraq and his report that they enjoyed a very high reputation in Iraq. This is significant in part because it echoes what several other critically credible sources have said in the past few weeks. It also demolishes the proposition of the Australian Left that somehow or other our participation in Iraq, which by the way is under the authorisation of a UN resolution, is somehow damaging our international reputation.

Ali A. Allawi, a former defence and finance minister in recent Iraqi governments, has written the definitive account of the invasion and occupation of Iraq, entitled, appropriately, The Occupation of Iraq.
In it he deplores the amateurism and incompetence of some of the staff of the Coalition Provisional Authority under the leadership of Paul Bremer. However, he goes out of his way to contrast this with the professionalism of the Australians, especially the Australians involved in reconstruction.

Similarly, the recently published memoirs of the former chief of the CIA, George Tenet, are instructive on this point. Tenet has become a critic of Bush and his memoirs are designed to limit his guilt by association with the Iraq operation and put as much distance as possible between himself and the Bush administration.

His remarks on Howard, though - again, strangely unreported - are instructive. He says that he and Bush agreed to delay the announcement of his resignation as CIA chief because Howard was due to visit and they didn't want to detract from the attention the US media should pay to Australia's Prime Minister.

Tenet writes: "Howard had been one of our closest allies. Not only had he deployed troops to Iraq, but he'd also had the enormous political courage to say that he'd gone to war in Iraq not because of what the intelligence said but because he'd believed it was the right thing to do. The President didn't want to do anything to step on Howard's visit. Nor did I."

This is much how many people see Howard internationally, unless they are dedicated haters of the coalition operation in Iraq. Australia, and Australia's Government, are seen as immensely successful internationally.

The final word, though, belongs to Zebari. One of his most likable traits is loyalty to friends. I asked him if he had any sympathy for Paul Wolfowitz, the former US deputy defence secretary and a key architect of the operation in Iraq, who resigned this week as head of the World Bank.

Zebari told me he had a lot of sympathy for Wolfowitz: "We Iraqis consider him a friend. He was a believer in Iraqi democracy. He has been criticised very unfairly. He was a close and determined friend of the Iraqi people and he never wavered in his commitment to our cause."

It is of course entirely right to receive a lesson in loyalty and consideration for a friend from a distinguished Iraqi democrat.

Gordon Brown On Iraq

Gordon Brown will maintain British obligations to the elected Iraqi government.

Commons Questions on Iraq

Dave Anderson, Joint President of LFIQ, asked about the plight of the Iraqi trade union movement in Commons Questions on International Labour Day and elicited clear support for the Iraqi labour movement.

Mr. David Anderson (Blaydon) (Lab): It is two years since the Iraqi Government seized the assets of the Iraqi trade unions, three months since three raids were carried out on the offices of the trade unions by US troops and a month since the leader of the mechanics union in Iraq was assassinated after being tortured. Will the Minister agree to meet me and representatives of the trade unions in Iraq to try to find a way forward, because at the moment our policy towards the trade unions in Iraq is not working?

Dr. Howells: I disagree with my hon. Friend. Our policy towards trade unions has been very supportive because they are a key part of civil society and are building the new society in Iraq. We must ensure that the sectarians who are killing trade unionists and those who for their own reasons are opposing democratic trade unionism in Iraq, are opposed. They are opposed regularly by the British Government and byour diplomats in Iraq.

Here is the full exchange on Iraq.

Iraq

2. Sir Malcolm Rifkind (Kensington and Chelsea) (Con): What her estimate is of the number of (a) people who have left Iraq since the invasion and (b) Iraqis who are internally displaced; and if she will make a statement.

The Minister for the Middle East (Dr. Kim Howells): I am sure that the House will join me in expressing condolences to the family of Rifleman Paul Donnachie of 2nd Battalion The Rifles, who was tragically killed in Iraq last Sunday. Rifleman Donnachie was killed by small arms fire during a routine patrol in Basra city while he and other members of his patrol were escorting a police training team.

United Nations agencies estimate that there are some 1.9 million Iraqis displaced internally, and up to 2 million refugees in neighbouring states. Many of those now in neighbouring states left Iraq before 2003, and there are no accurate figures for how many have joined them since then. However, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that currently 10,000 people are leaving their homes every week, many of them crossing into neighbouring countries.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind: Does the Minister agree that the almost 2 million refugees who have fled Iraq since the war are, to a large extent, members of the professional and business classes in Iraq—the very people who are required if Iraq is ever to enjoy proper civil reconstruction? Given that nearly 2 million have fled as refugees, that a further 2 million are internally displaced and that hundreds of thousands have been either killed or injured—including, sadly, further British soldiers—does the Minister still argue that the British Government's policy has contributed to progress and stability in the region? Has not Iraq in fact been transformed from a rogue state under Saddam Hussein to a failed state, with appalling consequences for its own people and for the region as a whole?

Dr. Howells: The right hon. and learned Gentleman makes some very good
points, but I remind him that, before the invasion, Iraq was run by a fascist dictator who tortured people readily and murdered hundreds of thousands of people, not just Kurds but fellow Arabs, and that many people had already left the country. This is not a comment on the right hon. and learned Gentleman or his question, but it seems to me that the silence that existed before the invasion of Iraq about the behaviour of Saddam Hussein is in stark contrast to the sudden
interest and the protests about Iraq now.

Mr. David Anderson (Blaydon) (Lab): It is two years since the Iraqi Government seized the assets of the Iraqi trade unions, three months since three raids were carried out on the offices of the trade unions by US troops and a month since the leader of the mechanics union in Iraq was assassinated after being tortured. Will the Minister agree to meet me and representatives of the trade unions in Iraq to try to find a way forward, because at the moment our policy towards the trade unions in Iraq is not working?

Dr. Howells: I disagree with my hon. Friend. Our policy towards trade unions has been very supportive because they are a key part of civil society and are building the new society in Iraq. We must ensure that the sectarians who are killing trade unionists and those who for their own reasons are opposing democratic trade unionism in Iraq, are opposed. They are opposed regularly by the British Government and by our diplomats in Iraq.

Bob Spink (Castle Point) (Con): Does the Minister agree that there has been excellent progress socially, economically and politically in the other Iraq—Iraqi Kurdistan? Does he also agree that, in order to maintain that progress and to guarantee the stability of populations and the return of internally displaced persons, the Kirkuk referendum must go forward later this year, without any interference, either internal or external, or delay?

Dr. Howells: The British Government certainly have no intention of interfering in any way in the referendum on the future of Kirkuk. I know that the hon. Gentleman is very interested in the Kurdish-administered part of Iraq and that he wants the referendum to go ahead. So do the British Government, but we want to ensure that that referendum is carried out properly and in a clear fashion, and that it is as inclusive as possible. As he knows, many allegations
have been made about gerrymandering and the rest of it, so the referendum has to be seen to be as clean as possible. This is potentially a volatile area and we have already seen some jihadists and insurrectionists moving out of Baghdad to Kirkuk and murdering people with their suicide bombers. It is an important issue. We will do all that we can to ensure that the referendum is properly conducted and benefits the people of the Kurdish north and the people of Iraq in general.

Jim Sheridan (Paisley and Renfrewshire, North) (Lab): Does my hon. Friend agree that the information that has been sought by the right hon. and learned Member for Kensington and Chelsea (Sir Malcolm Rifkind) is exactly the propaganda information that the insurgents in Iraq are seeking? Will my hon. Friend confirm that those killed or displaced in Iraq are not being killed or displaced by allied forces?

Dr. Howells: That is an important point. Sometimes it seems as if we are killing those tens of thousands of people. They are being killed by sectarians: there are Sunni on Shi'a murders, and Shi'a on Sunni murders. Sometimes the murders are committed in Basra by criminal gangs, who are making millions out of smuggling petroleum products. My hon. Friend is right to highlight that. The British armed forces in Iraq are trying their best to make that country a much more stable and prosperous place than it is now. I believe that they will succeed when the Iraqis themselves have the will to take on that fight to provide the security that their people need. That is why we are helping, in very difficult circumstances, to train Iraqi policemen and soldiers.

Mr. Keith Simpson (Mid-Norfolk) (Con): Following on from what has been said about the tens of thousands of people who are now leaving Iraq and the internal conflict there, what prospect does the Minister think there is of the Iraqi Government hanging together in the near future given the enormous strains that are now on both Sunni and Shi'a members of that Government? What pressure can the British Government bring to bear on the Iraqi Government to take this matter forward? If it is not taken forward, there will be a complete collapse of political credibility in Iraq.

Dr. Howells: The hon. Gentleman is right: this is about political credibility and national reconciliation, and about how that Government can become more inclusive—how they can represent not only Shi'as but Sunnis, and also Assyrian Christians, Kurds and everyone else who makes up that huge nation. I believe that that can be done. In the constitutional review that is under way in Iraq there will have to be imaginative thinking about, perhaps, forms of devolution and about trying to understand how it might be possible to reconcile the different pressures that there are in Iraq at present. That can be done, and in recent weeks Prime Minister Maliki has expressed a desire to do just that—to make the Iraqi Government a more inclusive Government who reach out to encompass all parts of society.

General Federation of Iraqi Workers May Day Message

In a wide ranging statement, to commemorate World Labour Day, the GFIW urges the Iraqi government to tackle the problems of unemployment and to revoke all anti-union legislation.